6th International MACroeconomics Workshop

Risks, Uncertainty and Macroeconomics Performances

Workshop presentation

This workshop is part of a cycle (6th edition since 2014) devoted to recent theoretical and econometric developments in International MACroeconomics (IMAC). The philosophy developed since the first IMAC workshop is to share national experiences and to confront academics with economists working in different kinds of economic or financial organizations.

The theme this year concerns macroeconomics risks, uncertainty, and their consequences.  The current global macroeconomic situation in developed as well as emerging countries is actually unprecedented, with the conjunction of a pandemic crisis, very low interest rates, collapsing foreign trade flows and domestic activity, a high level of uncertainty with the threat of trade and currency wars.

On December 4 (AM), Prof. Yushi Yoshida (Shiga University, Japan) will present a paper on Japan's current account movements. This paper is based on an empirical analysis of the current account’s components, i.e., trade balance and primary income balance. The econometric methodology developed by Yushi and his coauthor is based on structural VAR models with sign restrictions.
Prof. Roman Horvath (Charles University, Czech republic) will then offer an in-depth review of the literature on Central Bank transparency: its measurement, its recent trends and its effects. He will explain why central banks have become more transparent over the last three decades. Transparency is a crucial issue in the context of increasingly accommodative monetary policies.
In the afternoon of December 4, four papers will be presented by Cristina Badarau (LAREFI, Bordeaux) on prudential rules, Franck Martin (CREM, Rennes 1) on the banking sector, Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte (CREM, Caen-Normandy) on business cycle synchronization and Marc Pourroy (CRIEF, Poitiers) on the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on inflation.

Preliminary Program

9h15 Virtual welcome coffee
9h30-10h30 Yushi Yoshida
Income and Trade Dynamics in Japan’s Current Account: Exchange Rate Shock and Monetary Shock in SVARs
10h30-11h Discussant : Fabien Rondeau
11h-11h20 Break
11h20-12h20 Roman Horvath
Central Bank Transparency: Measurement, Trends and Effects
12h20-12h50 Discussant : Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte
12h50-14h00 Lunch break
14h-14h40 Cristina Badarau
A microfounded mechanism for prudential decision rules
14h40-14h55 Discussant : Jean-Christophe Poutineau
15h-15h40 Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte / Fabien Rondeau
Third-Country Effect on Business Cycle Synchronization: application to the European Union and the Brexit
15h40-15h55 Discussant : Yushi Yoshida
16h00-16h40 Marc Pourroy
The Contribution of Food Subsidy Policy to Monetary Policy
16h40-16h55 Discussant : Cristina Badarau
17h-17h40 Franck Martin / Tovonony Razafindrabe
A dual banking sector with credit unions and capitalistic banks: what implications on macroeconomic properties?
17h40-17h55 Discussant : Marc Pourroy

Registration

The workshop will happen online this year, due to the current sanitary situation.

Contact for registration: Tovonony Razafindrabe

Organizing Committee

  • Jean-Christophe Poutineau - CREM CNRS, Université de Rennes 1
  • Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte - CREM CNRS, Université de Caen Normandie
  • Tovonony Razafindrabe - CREM CNRS, Université de Rennes 1
  • Fabien Rondeau - CREM CNRS, Université de Rennes 1