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Année 2016

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Working papers - documents de travail du CREM

 

 

Année 2016

GIF

  • 2016-18 - Laurent Denant-Boèmont, Carl Gaigné, Romain Gaté
    Urban spatial structure, transport-related emissions and welfare
  • 2016-17 - Benoit Le Maux, Sarah Necker, Yvon Rocaboy
    Cheat or Perish ? A Theory of Scientific Customs
  • 2016-16 - Mamadou Diop
    La relance de l’économie française par l’austérité : une utopie ou une réalité ?
  • 2016-15 - Marie-Hélène Hubert, Marion Bary
    Instruments juridiques et économiques de régulation de la pollution de l’air et de l’atmosphère
  • 2016-14 - Marie-Hélène Hubert, Beyza Ural Marchand
    Le gaz de schiste peut-il participer à la réduction des émissions de C02 chinoises ?
  • 2016-13 - Ujjayant Chakravorty, Marie-Hélène Hubert, Beyza Ural Marchand
    The effect of the US biofuels mandate on poverty in India
  • 2016-12 - Mehdi Farajallah, Robert G. Hammond, Thierry Pénard
    What Drives Pricing Behavior in Peer-to-Peer Markets ? Evidence from the Carsharing Platform BlaBlaCar
  • 2016-11 - Muriel Giladorne
    Amartya Sen : un allié pour l’économie de la personne contre la métrique des capabilités. Deux arguments pour une lecture non fonctionnelle de la liberté chez Sen
  • 2016-10 - Kadohognon Sylvain Ouattara
    Taxe environnementale et délégation
  • 2016-09 - Sara Biancini, David Ettinger
    Vertical Integration and Downstream Collusion
  • 2016-08 - Blaise Gnimassoun, Marc Joets, Tovonony Razafindrabe
    On the link between current account and oil price fluctuation in diversified economies : The case of Canada
  • 2016-07 - Fabrice Le Lec, Marianne Lumeau, Benoît Tarroux
    Choice or information overload ?
  • 2016-06 - Franck Martin
    La structure des taux revisitée pour période de crise : entre contagion, flight to quality et Quantitative Easing
  • 2016-05 - Daniel Danau, Annalisa Vinella
    On the optimal use of correlated information in contractual design under limited liability
  • 2016-04 - Arnab Bhattacharjee, Jean Bonnet, Nicolas Le Pape, Régis Renault
    Going into Business and Out of Business : The Role of Human Capital
  • 2016-03 - Simon Cornée, Panu Kalmi, Ariane Szafarz
    Selectivity and Transparency in Social Banking : Evidence from Europe
  • 2016-02 - Jean Bonnet
    From Knowledge to Innovation Economy : Developing Education and Creating Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
  • 2016-01 - Jean Bonnet, Robert Cressy
    An encompassing model & test of the Evans-Jovanovic credit constraints hypothesis

 

 

  • Urban spatial structure, transport-related emissions and welfare
Creation-Date oct-16
Auteur /Author Laurent Denant-Boèmont, University of Rennes1 - CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France
Auteur /Author Carl Gaigné, INRA, UMR1302 SMART, France and University of LAVAL, CREATE, Québec, Canada
Auteur /Author Romain Gaté, University of Rennes1 - CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France and INRA, UMR1302 SMART, France
Mots clés / Keywords Urban form ; Housing ; Travel speed ; Carbon emissions ; Welfare
Classification-JEL : Q53, R14, R21
Abstract In this paper, we study the effects of urban design on pollution and welfare. We build a theoretical model of residential choices with pollution externalities arising from commuting, where the size of the central business district (CBD) and the demand for housing are endogenous. We show that a polycentric city is desirable from welfare and ecological perspective, provided that travel speed and/or the number of roads directly connected with the CBD are sufficiently high. The spatial extension of cities remains the critical variable to curb transport-related urban pollution.
Lien / download 2016-18.pdf

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  • Cheat or Perish ? A Theory of Scientific Customs
Creation-Date déc-16
Auteur /Author Benoît Le Maux, CREM-CNRS and Condorcet Center, University of Rennes 1, France
Auteur /Author Sarah Necker, University of Freiburg, Walter-Eucken Institute, Deutschland
Auteur /Author Yvon Rocaboy, CREM-CNRS and Condorcet Center, University of Rennes 1, France
Mots clés / Keywords Economics of Science, Contract Theory, Scientific Misbehavior, Social Norms
Classification-JEL : A11, A13, K42
Abstract We develop a theory of the evolution of scientific misbehavior. Our empirical analysis of a survey of scientific misbehavior in economics suggests that researchers’ disutility from cheating varies with the expected fraction of colleagues who cheat. This observation is central to our theory. We develop a one-principal multi-agent framework in which a research institution aims to reward scientific productivity at minimum cost. As the social norm is determined endogenously, performance-related pay may not only increase cheating in the short run but can also make cheat-ing increasingly attractive in the long run. The optimal contract thus depends on the dynamics of scientific norms. The premium on scientific productivity should be higher when the transmission of scientific norms across generations is lower (low marginal peer pressure) or the principal cares little about the future (has a high discount rate). Under certain conditions, a greater probability of detection also increases the optimal productivity premium.
Lien / download 2016-17.pdf

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  • La relance de l’économie française par l’austérité : une utopie ou une réalité ?
Creation-Date nov-16
Auteur /Author Mamadou Diop, Chercheur associé au CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, University of Rennes 1, France
Mots clés / Keywords relance, austérité budgétaire, croissance économique à court et long terme
Abstract Face à un déficit public excessif d’environ 3.7% du PIB, un niveau d’endettement de 97.6% du PIB et un taux de chômage de 10.5% en moyenne, le Gouvernement français est aujourd’hui déterminé à redonner de l’espoir à la population et de la confiance aux investisseurs. A cet effet, ce papier a pour but d’identifier les cibles budgétaires du Gouvernement dans sa politique de rigueur en évaluant ainsi les effets des instruments de politique budgétaire sur la croissance économique effective et potentielle. A travers les estimations réalisées sur des modèles à correction d’erreur, on trouve que l’austérité budgétaire peut avoir des effets positifs sur la croissance à court et long terme lorsque la cible du Gouvernement porte sur les dépenses de fonctionnement de l’Administration, les dépenses courantes et les prestations familiales accordées aux couches sociales les plus aisées. Compte tenu du niveau élevé des recettes fiscales qui représentent en moyenne 54% du PIB, la hausse des taux d’impôt ne peut plus être envisagée et doit être évitée afin d’encourager la substitution de l’investissement privé à l’action sur les dépenses publiques. En ciblant les dépenses d’investissements publics qui sont plus faciles à réduire, le Gouvernement affecte négativement la croissance potentielle. Pour une politique de rigueur plus efficace, ce papier invite les autorités publiques à revoir l’architecture institutionnelle composée d’un effectif pléthorique (577 députés et 384 sénateurs), à réfléchir sur les réformes sociales et à un retour aux enseignements de Pierre MENDES (3 juin 1953) : « Gouverner, c’est choisir, si difficiles que soient les choix ».
Lien / download 2016-16.pdf

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  • Instruments juridiques et économiques de régulation de la pollution de l’air et de l’atmosphère
Creation-Date nov-16
Auteur /Author Marion Bary, IODE, UMR CNRS 6262, University of Rennes 1, France
Auteur /Author Marie-Hélène Hubert, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, University of Rennes 1, France
Abstract The main contribution of this paper is to jointly present the economic and legal instruments. The first survey examines the different evaluation methods in environmental economics which are essential since the admission of the pure ecological damage in private law on the one hand, and to evaluate the effectiveness of economic policies, on the other hand. Evaluation method is a difficult task since a range of criteria exists. The second survey investigates the evolution of private law which places air pollution reduction obligations on economic agents and which enforces private economic agents to make reparation for injury. Although already a significant breakthrough to protect the environment, these new devices are not as efficient as expected.
Lien / download 2016-15.pdf

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  • Le gaz de schiste peut-il participer à la réduction des émissions de C02 chinoises ?
Creation-Date nov-16
Auteur /Author Marie-Hélène Hubert, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, University of Rennes 1, France
Mots clés / Keywords Shale gas, Climate change, Energy markets
Classification-JEL : Q33, Q38, Q42
Abstract To reduce CO2 emissions, Chinese government sets a target on the share of gas in its energy consumption. Shale gas can supply around 10% of energy consumption if its cost declines by one third, but it drives up domestic C02 emissions by 5%. A policy aiming at stabilizing coal consumption leads to large development of shale gas as well as a decrease in CO2 emissions of 41%. However, a tax on C02 emissions slows down shale gas development in favor of renewable energy.
Lien / download 2016-14.pdf

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  • The effect of the US biofuels mandate on poverty in India
Creation-Date nov-16
Auteur /Author Ujjayant Chakravorty, Department of Economics, Tufts University, USA
Auteur /Author Marie-Hélène Hubert, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, University of Rennes 1, France
Auteur /Author Beyza Ural Marchand, University of Alberta, Canada
Mots clés / Keywords Biofuels, Distributional effects, Household welfare, Renewable Fuel Stan-dards, Poverty
Classification-JEL : D31, O12, Q24, Q42
Abstract More than 40% of US grain is now used for energy and this share is expected to rise under the current Renewable Fuels Mandate (RFS). There are no studies of the global distributional consequences of this purely domestic policy. Using micro-level survey data, we trace the effect of the RFS on world food prices and their impact on household level consumption and wage impacts in India. We first develop a par-tial equilibrium model to estimate the effect of the RFS on the price of selected food commodities - rice, wheat, corn, sugar and meat and dairy, which together provide almost 70% of Indian food calories. World prices for these commodities are predicted to rise by 8-16%. Next, we estimate the price pass-through to domestic Indian prices and wage-price elasticities to account for the impact on workers with different skill levels. Poor rural households in India suffer significant consumption losses, which are regressive. However they benefit from wage increases because most of them are em-ployed in agriculture. Urban households also bear the higher cost of food, but do not see a concomitant rise in wage incomes because only a small fraction of them work in food-related industries. Welfare impacts are greater among urban households. How-ever, more poor people in India live in villages, so poverty impacts there are larger in magnitude. We estimate that the RFS leads to about 26 million new poor : 21 million in rural and five million in the urban population, roughly 10 percent of the estimated number of poor people in India today.
Lien / download 2016-13.pdf

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  • What Drives Pricing Behavior in Peer-to-Peer Markets ? Evidence from the Carsharing Platform BlaBlaCar
Creation-Date août-16
Auteur /Author Mehdi Farajallah, GIS Marsouin, France
Auteur /Author Robert G. Hammond, North Carolina State University, USA
Auteur /Author Thierry Pénard, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, UniversitY of Rennes 1, France
Abstract How are prices and market outcomes determined on peer-to-peer platforms ? More importantly, how should we expect price-setting and demand behavior to change as these markets mature ? We provide the first empirical analysis of the world’s leading carsharing platform, BlaBlaCar. Our econometric model explicitly accounts for the joint determination of price and quantity demanded and finds that pricing decisions evolve as drivers gain experience with the platform. More-experienced drivers set lower prices and, controlling for price, sell more seats. Our interpretation is that more-experienced drivers on BlaBlaCar learn to lower their prices as they gain experience. Further, we find that driver demographics matter. The demographic characteristic with the quantitatively largest effect is for drivers with an Arabic-sounding name, for whom there is meaningfully lower demand, despite the fact that these drivers set lower prices. In total, our results suggest that peer-to-peer markets such as BlaBlaCar share some characteristics with other types of peer-to-peer markets such as eBay but remain a unique and rich setting in which there are many new insights to be gained.
Lien / download 2016-12.pdf

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  • Amartya Sen : un allié pour l’économie de la personne contre la métrique des capabilités. Deux arguments pour une lecture non fonctionnelle de la liberté chez Sen
Creation-Date juil-16
Auteur /Author Muriel Gilardone, Normandie Université, UNICAEN, CREM UMR CNRS 6211, France
Classification-JEL : A13, B31, B41, D63, I31
Abstract Dans cet article, nous voulons montrer que l’usage du concept de capabilité comme une simple « métrique » du développement humain est une vision réductrice de la proposition intellectuelle de Sen. Contrairement à certaines idées reçues, Sen partage l’idée des tenants d’une économie de la personne (Ballet et al 2014) selon laquelle une théorie de la justice en termes de droits à certaines capabilités resterait prisonnière d’une vision purement fonctionnelle de la liberté. Notre démonstration passe par deux types d’arguments : 1) en reprenant l’hypothèse standard et originelle de la capabilité comme ensemble de vecteurs de fonctionnements accessibles (e.g., Sen 1987), nous mettons en évidence quatre implications théoriques de l’approche de Sen que la perspective standard en termes de « welfarisme formel » (D’Aspremont 2011, Baujard 2016) ne permet pas de saisir ; 2) nous confortons cette lecture en examinant l’hypothèse – passée inaperçue jusque là – de la capabilité comme « pouvoir effectif » d’agir dans le sens de résultats que l’on valorise (Sen 2008, 2010 [2009]). Dans les deux cas, il s’agit de montrer que la capabilité pour Sen est bien autre chose qu’une « métrique » de l’avantage personnel. De surcroît, la seconde hypothèse amène à intégrer d’emblée la question de l’obligation morale dans le concept de capabilité. Dès lors, la capabilité non seulement n’est pas une métrique de l’avantage personnel, mais elle n’est même plus une représentation de l’avantage personnel. C’est ici qu’apparaît la véritable révolution conceptuelle de Sen qui, contrairement à ce que Ricœur (2004) avait cru lire, ne se trouve pas dans le couple droit-capabilité, mais dans le couple responsabilité-capabilité nous obligeant à repenser le cadre standard des théories de la justice.
Lien / download 2016-11.pdf

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  • Taxe environnementale et délégation
Creation-Date mai-16
Auteur /Author Kadohognon Sylvain Ouattara, ESCA Ecole de Management, Casablanca, et CREM-UMR CNRS 6211
Mots clés / Keywords duopole mixte, taxe environnementale, incitations managériales, privatisation partielle
Classification-JEL : L13, L33, Q58, D21
Abstract Ce papier analyse la taxation des émissions de pollution dans une industrie où une entreprise semi-publique est en concurrence avec une entreprise privée (nationale ou étrangère). Nous sup-posons que les propriétaires des firmes engagent un gestionnaire à qui ils délèguent les décisions de production et d’abattement de la pollution. Nous montrons que la délégation a pour effet d’augmenter la taxe environnementale et le dommage environnemental. De plus, le niveau de taxe environnementale taxé par l’Etat en présence d’une firme privée étrangère est supérieur à celui taxé en présence d’une firme privée domestique.
Lien / download 2016-10.pdf

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  • Vertical Integration and Downstream Collusion
Creation-Date mai-16
Auteur /Author Sara Biancini, Normandie Université, UNICAEN, CREM CNRS, France
Auteur /Author David Ettinger, Paris Dauphine, PSL, LEDa and CEREMADE
Mots clés / Keywords Vertical Integration, Tacit Collusion
Classification-JEL : D43, L13, L40, L42
Abstract We investigate the effect of a vertical merger on downstream firms’ ability to collude in a repeated game framework. We show that a vertical merger has two main effects. On the one hand, it increases the total collusive profits, increasing the stakes of collusion. On the other hand, it creates an asymmetry between the integrated firm and the unintegrated competitors. The integrated firm, accessing the input at marginal cost, faces higher profits in the deviation phase and in the non cooperative equilibrium, which potentially harms collusion. As we show, the optimal collusive profit-sharing agreement takes care of the increased incentive to deviate of the integrated firm, while optimal punishment erases the difficulty related to the asymmetries in the non cooperative state. As a result, vertical integration generally favors collusion.
Lien / download 2016-09.pdf

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  • On the link between current account and oil price fluctuation in diversified economies : The case of Canada
Creation-Date mai-16
Auteur /Author Blaise Gnimassoun, University of Lorraine - BETA UMR CNRS 7522, France
Auteur /Author Marc Joets, Banque de France, International Macroeconomics Division, France
Auteur /Author Tovonony Razafindrabe, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, Université de Rennes 1, France
Mots clés / Keywords curent account, oil prices, time-varying parameters
Classification-JEL : F32, Q43, C32
Abstract This study revisits the important link between oil prices and current account for oil exporting countries by paying a particulary attention to the time-varying nature of this link. To this end, we rely on an innovative methodology which is the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with sign restriction. We find that while an oil supply shock has a non-significant impact on the current account, an oil demand shock has a positive and significant impact which tends to increase over time. In addition, by studying the economic factors underlying the growing evolution of this relationship, we find that, although the propensity to import of oil revenues has a significant negative influence on the pass-through of oil demand shocks on the current account, deepening of the domestic financial market and accumulation of foreign exchange reserve have a significant positive effect.
Lien / download 2016-08.pdf

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  • Choice or information overload ?
Creation-Date avr-16
Auteur /Author Fabrice Le Lec, CES, Université de Paris 1, France
Auteur /Author Marianne Lumeau, CEPN, Université de Paris 13, LABEX ICCA, France
Auteur /Author Benoît Tarroux, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, Faculté des Sciences Économiques, Université de Rennes 1, France
Mots clés / Keywords Choice overload ; Information overload ; Bounded rationality ; Familiarity ; Experimental Economics
Classification-JEL : C91, D03, D83
Abstract This paper aims to test how the profusion of choice and information affects individuals’ decisions. In particular, we investigate whether the possible choice overload effects are due to the mere presence of many alternatives or the difficulty in processing abundance of information that comes with the proliferation of options. To do so, we use the frequency with which familiar alternatives are preferred to unfamiliar ones as a behavioural measure of overload. We first propose an individual decision model, in which uncertainty about values of alternatives leads consumer to prefer familiar goods. We use this theoretical approach to devise an experiment where the level of information and the number of alternatives systematically vary. Our results show that individuals are prone to overload in the presence of larger choice sets, but that information has a small impact, if any.
Lien / download 2016-07.pdf

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  • La structure des taux revisitée pour période de crise : entre contagion, flight to quality et Quantitative Easing
Creation-Date mars-16
Auteur /Author Franck Martin, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, Faculty of Economics, University of Rennes 1, France
Mots clés / Keywords Marchés obligataires souverains, Zone euro, Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt, Choix de portefeuille, Contagion, Flight to quality, Quantitative Easing
Classification-JEL :
Abstract Ce papier propose une extension à deux pays d’un modèle traditionnel de la structure par terme des taux d’intérêt. Le cadre analytique des choix de portefeuille fait jouer un rˆole essentiel aux anticipations de variances et covariances des rendements et taux obligataires, dans la détermination des taux longs d’équilibre sur les dettes souveraines. Plusieurs résul-tats significatifs émergent pour donner des éclairages nouveaux sur la dynamique des taux depuis le début de la crise de la dette en zone euro. Le scénario des investisseurs en termes de contagion ou de flight to quality trouve dans les mécanismes de choix de portefeuilles optimaux, qui sous-tendent la formation des taux, des effets qui sont plus de type ” auto-réalisateur ” que ” contrariant ”. Les nouvelles sur les finances publiques des états souverains en difficulté, comme les achats ou annonces d’achats d’obligations d’état par la BCE, ont un impact sur les taux des autres pays qui dépend crucialement du régime de covariance anticipé par les investisseurs. Devant l’incertitude sur ce régime de covariance, le programme de QE de la BCE doit être diversifié et pas uniquement ciblé sur les pays en difficulté.
Lien / download 2016-06.pdf

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  • On the optimal use of correlated information in contractual design under limited liability
Creation-Date mars-16
Auteur /Author Daniel Danau, Normandie Université, UNICAEN, CREM CNRS, France
Auteur /Author Annalisa Vinella, Università degli Studi di Bari « Aldo Moro », Italy
Mots clés / Keywords Incentive compatibility ; Limited liability ; Correlated signals ; Conditional probability ; Full-rank condition
Classification-JEL : D82
Abstract Riordan and Sappington (JET, 1988) show that in an agency relationship in which the type of the agent is correlated with a signal that is observed publicly ex post, the principal may attain first best (full surplus extraction and efficient output levels) if she offers the agent a lottery such that each type is rewarded for one signal realization and punished equally for all the others. Gary-Bobo and Spiegel (RAND, 2006) show that this kind of lottery is most likely to be locally incentive-compatible when the agent is protected by limited liability. In this paper we investigate how the principal should construct the lottery to attain not only local but also global incentive-compatibility. We first assess that the main issue with global incentive-compatibility rests with intermediate types being potentially attractive reports to both lower- and higher-order types. We then show that a lottery including three (rather than two) levels of profit is most likely to be globally incentive-compatible under limited liability, if local incentive constraints are strictly satisfied. We identify conditions under which first best is implemented and pin down the optimal distortions when those conditions are violated. In particular, when the first-best allocation is locally but not globally incentive-compatible, output distortions are induced but no information rent is conceded to the agent.
Lien / download 2016-05.pdf

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  • Going into Business and Out of Business : The Role of Human Capital
Creation-Date mars-16
Auteur /Author Arnab Bhattacharjee, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh,UK
Auteur /Author Jean Bonnet, Normandie Université, UNICAEN, CREM, France
Auteur /Author Nicolas Le Pape, Normandie Université, UNICAEN, CREM, France
Auteur /Author Régis Renault, Normandie Université, UNICAEN, CREM, France
Mots clés / Keywords entrepreneurial ability, labor market, human capital, …rm survival
Classification-JEL : L26, C41, J24
Abstract An evaluation of the impact of an entrepreneur’s human capital on her/his entrepre-neurial ability is likely to su¤er from a sample selection bias if performed on a sample of new entrepreneurs alone. Our theoretical model of entrepreneurial choice allows us to characterize this bias. It is shown to be positive (respectively negative) for individuals who were in a favorable (respectively adverse) situation in the labor market at the time at which they decided to become self-employed. Our empirical application measures the impact of the entrepreneur’s education on the newly created …rm’s survival. It is found to be strong and signi…cant for individuals who were previously employed in the new …rm’s branch of activity, whereas it is at best weakly signi…cant for individuals who were previously unemployed or employed in a branch di¤erent from that of the new …rm, so that they are more likely to have been poorly matched. These results suggest a very substantial sample selection bias in our sample.
Lien / download 2016-04.pdf

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  • Selectivity and Transparency in Social Banking : Evidence from Europe
Creation-Date févr-16
Auteur /Author Simon Cornée, Université de Rennes 1, CREM CNRS, and CERMi, France
Auteur /Author Panu Kalmi, University of Vaasa
Auteur /Author Ariane Szafarz, Université Libre de Bruxelles, SBS-EM, CEB, and CERMi
Mots clés / Keywords Social banks, Social enterprises, Social mission, European banks
Classification-JEL : G21, L33, M14, L31, D63, D82
Abstract How do social banks signal their social commitment to motivated funders ? This paper hypothesizes that two main channels are used, namely selectivity and transparency. We test these predictions using a rich dataset comprising balance-sheet information on 5,000 European banks over the 1998-2013 period. The results suggest that social screening leads social banks to higher project selectivity compared with mainstream banks. Social banks also tend to be more transparent than other banks. However, combining selectivity and transparency can result in excess liquidity. Overall, the empirical findings not only confirm our theoretical hypotheses, but also raise challenging issues on the management of social banks.
Lien / download 2016-03.pdf

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  • From Knowledge to Innovation Economy : Developing Education and Creating Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
Creation-Date févr-16
Auteur /Author Jean Bonnet, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, UFR SEGGAT, University of Caen Normandie, France
Mots clés / Keywords Entrepreneurship by opportunity, Entrepreneurial Education, Entrepreneurial Ecosystems
Classification-JEL : L26, J24, P16
Abstract In a market economy, reward structures are more or less favorable to opportunity entrepreneurship, which brings growth and jobs (Schreyer, 2000). Currently the small group of high-growth firms generates a large proportion of permanent jobs (Henrekson and Johansson, 2010 ; Falkenhall and Junkka, 2009) and new companies are widely represented (Daunfeldt and al, 2014). How to nurture these new companies with high-growth potential in France is a major issue that, we believe, is mainly based on a better functioning of the labor market, and the development of entrepreneurial education and ecosystems favorable to entrepreneurship.
Lien / download 2016-02.pdf

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  • Search Online – Purchase Online in Franchising : An Empirical Analysis of Franchisor Website Functionality
Creation-Date janv-16
Auteur /Author Robert Cressy, Birmingham Business School, UK
Auteur /Author Jean Bonnet, CREM, UMR CNRS 6211, UFR SEGGAT, University of Caen Normandie, France
Mots clés / Keywords Entrepreneurship, startups, credit constraints, survival, France, panel data, hazard rate
Classification-JEL : L25,L26,G33
Abstract Using an unbalanced panel of some 36,500 French startup firms and 11,600 closures over the period 1994-2000 we test for a role of bank credit scoring in small business lending using an encompassing version (GEJ) of the seminal Evans-Jovanovic(1989) (EJ) model of credit constraints. In the GEJ model the bank’s estimate of the probabilty of individual company survival (business quality) is allowed to figure in the startup credit decision, alongside collateral. On the French data EJ is rejected in favour of GEJ. Thus we conclude with EJ that there is evidence of startup credit constraints via bank lending rules, but that this imperfection is ameliorated by the bank’s estimate of firm quality : better firms and entrepreneurs are more likely to get loans. Enrepreneurial human capital is also found (consistently with Cressy, 1996) to play a major role in the survival of startup businesses and hence in the chances of getting a loan. Consistent with other empirical work we also establish that startup loan refusal (an upper bound to rationing) affects only a small proportion (9%) of applicants. However, for those whose loan request is rejected, dynamics show that they have a permanently higher hazard of failure (by 50%-90%), relative to their funded counterparts. Credit constraints thus contribute to small business failure.
Lien / download 2016-01.pdf

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